Backtesting

Replay strategies on historical resolved markets
Engine Ready▣
Yes
Resolved markets only
Kelly DefaultK
Third-Kelly
f* / 3 = 0.33
Sample◉
Resolved Only
Markets with known outcomes
Output⚠
Hypothetical
Not financial advice
Strategy Configuration
Maps to start/end date filter on resolved markets
Third-Kelly (default per spec). Change to test other fractions (e.g. 0.5 = Half-Kelly, 1.0 = Full-Kelly).
Minimum required edge to enter a position (e.g. 0.05 = 5%)
Hypothetical starting capital for the simulation
Maximum fraction of bankroll per trade (e.g. 0.25 = 25%)
Per-trade fee rate (0.0 = no fees; Kalshi ~0.07, Polymarket ~0.02)
Configure strategy parameters above and click Run Backtest to see hypothetical performance.
HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM. ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. CFTC RULE 4.41(b). Past results do not predict future outcomes. Calculator output — not financial advice. Tech Takes LLC — VNX Terminal.